The Predictablility of Fan Awards Nominations
Several weeks ago, I promised an analysis of your guesses about who would get top 10 nominations in the Singing News Fan Awards. Examining the guesses, I did notice several interesting things.
- The most accurate guess (Toshiba) averaged 7.45 correct guesses per category. Interestingly enough, the least accurate was surprisingly high, too, at 6.05. The accuracy of the nine entries, in posting order, were 7.45, 7.3, 7.2, 7.05 (me), 7.3, 6.05, 6.55, 6.55, and 6.8. The average accuracy was just under 7 per category (6.92). Probably just about anyone who follows the industry closely can guess, on average, over half the nominees in each category. I was also surprised that all the guesses were within a 15% (1.5 guesses/category range), with most being within a 10% range (6.5-7.5).
- The most predictable category seems to be bass. Donna and I both guessed all ten nominees correctly, and all(!) the other posters correctly guessed nine of the ten, for an average of 9.22 correct guesses.
- The top ten most accurately guessed categories were Bass (9.22 average correct guesses), Male Quartet (8.67), Tenor (8.33), Lead (8.11), Trio (8.11), Mixed Group (7.78), Alto (7.78), Album (7.67), Baritone (7.56), and Female Singer (7.56).
- The five least accurately guessed categories were Horizon Individual (2.33), Soloist (5.11), Horizon Group (5.22), Soprano (5.78), and Song (5.78). Of course, with song, “I Can Pray” being disqualified took just about everyone’s guess down 1 point.
- Remarkable guesses: Donna and I guessed all 10 bass singers correctly, Seaton got a perfect score in the tenor category, and Donna also guessed all 10 male quartets correctly. (Not bad for a trio fan–a category in which she didn’t do too badly, either, guessing eight.)
It was a fascinating project, and thanks to all who provided guesses for the analysis.